January 9th, 2006
My quest for a better understanding of the IBD 100 processes began last week with a look at the additions made then. My posting elicited the following comments from a reader, BVW (of the Park South Trader blog):
“IBD 100 type stocks are usually good trading vehicles.. they’re moving. but as far as timing? i would not “run with the crowd” on IBD additions/deletions, but rather use one’s own entry/exit criteria. i use IBD for “what”.. not “when” or
“how much” to buy….dont you think trading IBD type stocks will run circles
(performance-wise) around doing channel plays that might take a year to come to
fruition? just curious how you think about these issues.”
I couldn’t agree with you more, BVW. I long ago gave up attributing any weight to the exact ranking of individual stocks (they seem to fluctuate, often widely, without any apparent significance) and tend to focus more on new additions to the list and stocks bumped.
Another week went by and there were some more changes to the 100 list. Perhaps because of the first excitement and bouyancy of the market in over 5 years (as I’m writing this, the DJ30 just broke 11,000 for the first time since June, 2001!), IBD rotated 19% of the list. Of the additions, 4 were totally new to the list [since I started keeping tabs on April 1, 2005].
I can’t comment on one of them, Schick (SCHK) since it’s relatively new so there’s no history (i.e., charts) on which to make some judgements about the future. Timken (TKR) has increased 133% since it began a fairly consistent uptrend in September 2003.
Tradestation (TRAD) appears the more interesting of the two remaining additions since it has recently broken through a resistance trendline that stretches back to 2003 and 1999 and is now moving in all-time high territory. In other words, anyone who owns the stock, regardless of when they made their purchase now has a gain!
In the following tables, “First Listed” represents the number of weeks since the stock first was added to the list, “Freq” is the percentage of weeks since that first listing it was on the list and “Price Change” is the % change in price from first listing to last Friday.
|86||CLB||Core Laboratories Nv|
|54||SFY||Swift Energy Co||4||50.0%||-3.5%|
|94||DVN||Devon Energy Corp||5||40.0%||2.0%|
|95||BHI||Baker Hughes Inc||16||6.3%||13.3%|
|96||RIO||Comp Vale Do Rio Adr||17||70.6%||12.9%|
|55||ASVI||A S V Inc||22||13.6%||18.0%|
|82||ITU||Banco Itau Hldg Sa
|71||JCOM||J 2 Global Comm||37||27.0%||28.8%|
|46||NPTE||North Pointe Hldgs Corp||1||100%||-5.1%|
|97||DBRN||Dress Barn Inc||1||100%||3.0%|
|50||ACH||Aluminum Cp Of China Adr||5||100%||3.6%|
|89||VAR||Varian Medical Systems||5||40%||-7.7%|
|99||SAFT||Safety Insurance Group||7||71%||-5.2%|
|85||NILE||Blue Nile Inc||7||57%||-4.6%|
|86||CHRW||C H Robinson Worldwide||9||78%||5.3%|
|87||OXM||Oxford Industries Inc||11||45%||7.3%|
|93||SAY||Satyam Computer Svcs Adr||11||36%||19.8%|
|96||ET||E*Trade Financial Corp||11||36%||24.7%|
|95||GPN||Global Payments Inc||12||33%||21.2%|
|98||ARD||Arena Resources Inc||12||25%||30.3%|
|82||HIBB||Hibbett Sporting Goods||35||60%||40.4%|
|94||RTSX||Radiation Therapy Svcs||36||53%||50.8%|
|51||PNRA||Panera Bread Co Cl A||40||55%||17.9%|
|81||PHLY||Philadelphia Cons Hldgs||40||40%||31.5%|