January 9th, 2006

Additions to IBD 100-Part 2

My quest for a better understanding of the IBD 100 processes began last week with a look at the additions made then. My posting elicited the following comments from a reader, BVW (of the Park South Trader blog):

“IBD 100 type stocks are usually good trading vehicles.. they’re moving. but as far as timing? i would not “run with the crowd” on IBD additions/deletions, but rather use one’s own entry/exit criteria. i use IBD for “what”.. not “when” or
“how much” to buy….dont you think trading IBD type stocks will run circles
(performance-wise) around doing channel plays that might take a year to come to
fruition? just curious how you think about these issues.”

I couldn’t agree with you more, BVW. I long ago gave up attributing any weight to the exact ranking of individual stocks (they seem to fluctuate, often widely, without any apparent significance) and tend to focus more on new additions to the list and stocks bumped.

Another week went by and there were some more changes to the 100 list. Perhaps because of the first excitement and bouyancy of the market in over 5 years (as I’m writing this, the DJ30 just broke 11,000 for the first time since June, 2001!), IBD rotated 19% of the list. Of the additions, 4 were totally new to the list [since I started keeping tabs on April 1, 2005].

I can’t comment on one of them, Schick (SCHK) since it’s relatively new so there’s no history (i.e., charts) on which to make some judgements about the future. Timken (TKR) has increased 133% since it began a fairly consistent uptrend in September 2003.

Tradestation (TRAD) appears the more interesting of the two remaining additions since it has recently broken through a resistance trendline that stretches back to 2003 and 1999 and is now moving in all-time high territory. In other words, anyone who owns the stock, regardless of when they made their purchase now has a gain!

In the following tables, “First Listed” represents the number of weeks since the stock first was added to the list, “Freq” is the percentage of weeks since that first listing it was on the list and “Price Change” is the % change in price from first listing to last Friday.

Added

Rank Symbol Name First
Listed
Freq Price
Change
9 TRAD Tradestation Group
Inc
52 SCHK Schick Technologies
Inc
86 CLB Core Laboratories Nv
91 TKR Timken Co
40 LIFC Lifecell Corp 2 50.0% -0.7%
54 SFY Swift Energy Co 4 50.0% -3.5%
94 DVN Devon Energy Corp 5 40.0% 2.0%
76 CKFR Checkfree
Corporation
10 30.0% 14.4%
88 VIP Vimpel
Communications
16 18.8% 7.8%
95 BHI Baker Hughes Inc 16 6.3% 13.3%
96 RIO Comp Vale Do Rio Adr 17 70.6% 12.9%
84 NOV National Oilwell
Varco
22 50.0% 23.9%
55 ASVI A S V Inc 22 13.6% 18.0%
68 TTI Tetra Technologies
Del
23 60.9% 39.7%
82 ITU Banco Itau Hldg Sa
Adr
35 60.0% 49.2%
73 CHE Chemed Corporation 35 51.4% 40.1%
92 PSYS Psychiatric
Solutions
37 73.0% 47.7%
70 HAL Halliburton Company 37 59.5% 50.6%
71 JCOM J 2 Global Comm 37 27.0% 28.8%

Stocks bumped included:

Removed

Rank Symbol Name First
Listed
Freq Price
Change
46 NPTE North Pointe Hldgs Corp 1 100% -5.1%
97 DBRN Dress Barn Inc 1 100% 3.0%
50 ACH Aluminum Cp Of China Adr 5 100% 3.6%
89 VAR Varian Medical Systems 5 40% -7.7%
68 VLCM Volcom Inc 7 71% 0.2%
99 SAFT Safety Insurance Group 7 71% -5.2%
85 NILE Blue Nile Inc 7 57% -4.6%
86 CHRW C H Robinson Worldwide 9 78% 5.3%
87 OXM Oxford Industries Inc 11 45% 7.3%
93 SAY Satyam Computer Svcs Adr 11 36% 19.8%
96 ET E*Trade Financial Corp 11 36% 24.7%
95 GPN Global Payments Inc 12 33% 21.2%
98 ARD Arena Resources Inc 12 25% 30.3%
79 ANGO Angiodynamics Inc 31 29% 33.5%
82 HIBB Hibbett Sporting Goods 35 60% 40.4%
94 RTSX Radiation Therapy Svcs 36 53% 50.8%
51 PNRA Panera Bread Co Cl A 40 55% 17.9%
81 PHLY Philadelphia Cons Hldgs 40 40% 31.5%
70 WBSN Websense Inc 40 20% 23.3%

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