February 28th, 2008
It’s really getting exciting. The “race” is getting down to the finish line and everyone is anxious to see what happens at the end.
What am I talking about? It’s the race I’ve been writing about over the past several weeks, the race to the possibility of a downside breakout from the current trading range (which some have called a symmetrical triangle).
In my February 15 posting, I claimed that the market was 10-20 trading days (excluding holidays and weekends) away from a “crash”. That would place the beginning of the downturn sometime between Monday, March 3 and Monday, March 17.
I arrived at the time frame by extrapolating out the trajectory of the various moving averages by which I measure the direction and strength the market’s momentum. Since those moving averages are fairly long-term in their time-horizon, extrapolating out 10-20 days is relatively easy. Here are several observations recapping the movement towards the “target” (today’s observation is as of 12:00 noon):
Assuming that the S&P 500 remains essentially at the current level of 1365, the crossover between the 180 to below the 300-day moving average with recent rates of descent of the two moving averages should be around March 11.
That date is significant for a number of reasons because it’s the date on which the recently end bull market began in 2003. How do I remember that? Because it’s also my birthday.
Let’s see what, if anything happens this year.