April 18th, 2008

Should I buy or sell this market?

Great move so far today … up 1.7% to 1390 on the S&P 500. Does that sound familiar? It should because that’s the level that the market petered out 3 times since the beginning of the this year (see chart in previous post). Each time, after touching or getting close to the level, the index fell.

What might make this time different is that the Index has crossed back over both the 60- and 90-day moving averages for the first time. This move, if it holds, is stronger but not yet compelling. What would cinch it is if the Index continued its advance far enough to cross over the 180-day MA.

That 2.9% additional is less than the move it’s made so far this week. Everyone hold their breadths.

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