April 16th, 2009
If you’re a regular reader, you see that my focus has started to shift as the market’s action turned decidedly different. During most of last year, my emphasis was trying to persuade you to move into cash (my first such comments were back in February 2008). And since early March, I’ve been trying to point to stocks or industry groups that appear to begun forming clear reversal patterns and started moving higher smartly.
I takes nearly 2 hours daily to write these columns and when I’m not writing I’m thinking about important things you need to know or understand and how best to communicate them to you.
It’s gratifying to know that my daily labors have helped people to weather this Bear Market over the past 16-18 months. As a reward, I receive some very nice comments from readers like you over the past year, through emails or in comments on this blog. If you don’t mind, I’d like to share some of them with you (and if you are the writer, thank you again):
- Thanks for all the work you did on this post. Very interesting how often analysts are wrong! From Coyote 4/15/2009
- Thanks for the post about whether this is the bottom or a trap. I tend to agree with you, that we will retest successfully. But is it possible we are NOT going to retest? I’m waiting to pour a good dose of money into the market (as are you, I see), but I worry that the time to dive in has passed. From Eric 4/13/2009
- I’ve added your blog to my gmail reader and appreciate your reasoned approach to the markets. The charts that you include clearly illustrate your points without looking complicated. I’m having trouble deciding on which charting site to use on a daily basis . I’m overwhelmed by all the choices and wonder if you have a recommendation for a beginner. From Jim April 10, 2009
- Thanks for you insight into the market. From Robert 4/9/2009
- I’ve only been reading your page for a few weeks…I was just going through your spreadsheet you posted, and I have to say it’s quite impressive. From Tim 4/4/2009
- I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often. From Miriam 4/2/2009
- I am fairly new to studying the stock market and I know that if I am to ever become a decent trader I have to understand technical indicators. I recently added your feed to my homepage and I have now read several of your posts. I see the logic in what you report and it is a refreshing difference from the media. From Robert March 21, 2009
- Thanks for your help separating the day-to-day market drama from more significant trend developments. From Pete 3/11/2009
- I recently saw your blog which offered your industry ranking spreadsheet. Since I believe your work deserves merit. From Martin March 05, 2009
- Your posts are generally simple and to the point and very profound in its contents and messages. Today’s post bring in such clarity and the correct way of using TA to gain in stock picking by correlating the major indices. Highly appreciative of your good works. From ilango 1/26/2009
- I had to laugh when Cramer rolled out his “Tech Week”. I thought of you, Guru, and was hoping you’d have some fun with this! I would love to see some of the chartists that come on now take your longer-term perspective. Seems like charting the last few months action is just getting confusing with wedges, pennants and channels all converging. Hope someone from CNBC pops in here, I’d watch your idea for a show! From Chad Wed 1/14/2009
- Articulating clearly and concisely what the various charts reflect is most appreciated. That alone provides a current and relevant snapshot, providing confidence and a better understanding of what is depicted as being a possible trend to be aware of. Thanks. From rbblum 1/11/2009
- Your work/blog is really appreciated. From Ajay 1/5/2009
- Just wanted to drop you a note and let you know I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your blogs, they are very insightful and interesting. I certainly hope you continue to post them, thanks for all the valuable information. From Chuck 1/2/2009
- I was doing some research and came across your blog – very nice! I work in the field of technical analysis. From Gentry January 01, 2009
- Your blog is impressive and should have a larger audience. From Kirk December 24, 2008
- I just stumbled across your blog for the first time today…and discovered that there are quite a few interesting nuggets in here. I’m now subscribing to your feed and looking forward to more. From Bill May 05, 2008
The past has been painful, frustrating and, even sometimes, boring. But I think we may be moving to a much more interesting and, in some ways, more challenging period. It’s not difficult outperforming the market when it’s imploding. All you have to do is to move into cash. But when the market’s rising (as it has with this more than 25% gain since March 9), outperforming the Index becomes harder because you have to avoiding losers, find not only good stocks but those stocks that are leading the market.
To get a sense of how difficult that is, look at the fascinating chart in this Seeking Alpha article (I’m not reproducing it here because of copyright ristrictions) from a book by Mebane Faber (also the author of the World Beta blog. The point made is that between 1983 and 2007, 60% of stocks produced a 0 return; all the returns from stocks were made by the 25% of the remaining. In addition, 25% of stocks had 300% or more over the period … but 25% had losses of 75%.
So stock selection is going to be critical for success as the market starts moving ahead. And my challenge will be to try to help you find those winners. One way of doing that is an idea I’m toying with …. I’m thinking of offering on a first-come-basis, the opportunity to have face-t0-face training and discussion sessions about stock chart techniques, industry group rotation and market timing. Since I’m not certified, I won’t be able to advise you on portfolio, investment or tax matters. All I’ll be able to do is to teach you my techniques, the things you’ve been reading about here, and also discuss my opinion concerning some specific stocks that may be of interest to you.
I envision doing this via Skype for a limited number of you, probably not exceeding 100. Of course, because of the additional time commitment, it will have to be on a subscription basis. For either a monthly, quarterly or annual subscription fee, you’ll have access to “the Guru’s” undivided, face-to-face attention for 10-minutes or an hour (the monthly subscription, for example, will be $100). I’ll be working for you. In the meanwhile, I’ll continue writing this blog and sharing with you my observations, ideas and insights.
I’m working out the specifics but if you’re interested to learn more, send me an email directly at the address in the side panel rather than through the blog comments; that way it’ll be more private and confidential.