April 2nd, 2010

Lunar Phases: Redux

Yes, it’s that time again, time to again check into Lunar Cycles to see if they can give any indication as to what the near term might offer.

[Every time I do this I shudder because it just feeds into the view that technical analysis is about as worthwhile as astrology. So consider this more as an objective exercise than crystal ball fortune telling.]

Here’s the track record since about this time last year. You make your own decision:

If this were the racetrack or Las Vegas then I’d take these odds. The statistics begin May 26, 2009 (S&P 500 at 910.33) and end last Tuesday, March 30, the last Full Moon (S&P 500 at 1173.27) during which time the market gained 28.8%. The table above indicates that nearly all the gain occurred during the period between Full waning to New Moon. If you had owned the S&P Index (SPY) after a Full Moon and sold it after a New Moon then you’d wind up with a 27.60% gain (ignoring compounding).

True, the market gained when the moon was waxing to Full but more than half 11 cycles it declined. In 8 of 10 times the moon was waning to New the market gained. With a full moon last week, the next couple of weeks to April 14 should, statistically, result in a higher market (to about 1210 at the average gain with an upside possibility of 1245).

If the market isn’t bewildering enough, this makes it just a bit more exciting.

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  • DG

    Hey Joe – Great analysis. THANKS!

    I'll be on the lookout to increase my stop losses more tightly around that time and that [S&P] level.