April 2nd, 2010
Yes, it’s that time again, time to again check into Lunar Cycles to see if they can give any indication as to what the near term might offer.
[Every time I do this I shudder because it just feeds into the view that technical analysis is about as worthwhile as astrology. So consider this more as an objective exercise than crystal ball fortune telling.]
Here’s the track record since about this time last year. You make your own decision:
If this were the racetrack or Las Vegas then I’d take these odds. The statistics begin May 26, 2009 (S&P 500 at 910.33) and end last Tuesday, March 30, the last Full Moon (S&P 500 at 1173.27) during which time the market gained 28.8%. The table above indicates that nearly all the gain occurred during the period between Full waning to New Moon. If you had owned the S&P Index (SPY) after a Full Moon and sold it after a New Moon then you’d wind up with a 27.60% gain (ignoring compounding).
True, the market gained when the moon was waxing to Full but more than half 11 cycles it declined. In 8 of 10 times the moon was waning to New the market gained. With a full moon last week, the next couple of weeks to April 14 should, statistically, result in a higher market (to about 1210 at the average gain with an upside possibility of 1245).
If the market isn’t bewildering enough, this makes it just a bit more exciting.