April 16th, 2010

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The graphic below should be familiar to you by now. The upper one represents the difference between the various phases of the typical stock market cycle; the lower one describes the qualitative and emotional dimension of the different phases.

My track record since early in 2008 has been prescient in identifying and highlighting major turns as the market navigated from bear market crash through subsequent recovery:

  1. 10-20 Days to a Stock Market Crash (February 15, 2008)
  2. The Debate is Settled, The Market Has Hit Bottom (March 19, 2009)
  3. This Could Be The Start of Something Bigger And Better (April 27, 2009)
  4. Market Future is in Eyes of the Beholder (July 11, 2009)
  5. The Importance of S&P 1150 Can’t be Overstated (January 19, 2010)

The market is highly volatile today, so managing the amount you have at risk is key. Knowing when to buy and sell is as crucial as as knowing what individual stocks to buy and sell. If you’ve been a reader here for a while, you’re familiar with my discipline, strategies and techniques. The techniques I’ve been writing about over the past five years are the same ones I use to manage my personal investments.

I’m taking an extraordinary step now of letting you look over my shoulder as I actually trade for my personal accounts and am sharing those trades with you. Soon after making a trade in my personal account, I email you an Instant Alert telling you about the trade, including a brief commentary with the chart I used to make that decision and a brief explanation as to my reasoning behind them. You will now have an opportunity to see how I select stocks and how I trade them.

In addition, you’ll see the current reading of the Market Security Meter, a visual translation of my Market Timing Indicator. You’ll also receive a pdf copy of two chapters on Market Timing from my forthcoming book, Run With Herd describing how the MTI is constructed.

I’m not a day trader and the pool of money I work with is fixed. When I’m fully invested in good stocks and the market cooperates by moving ahead, I want to hold my positions and may not make many trades. But when the market reaches what I feel is a peak, most of the trades will be sales. Depending on what’s happening in the market at the time, I could make several trades a day; at other times there might not be any at all for several days. Mostly I trade individual securities but also often include commodity, country, currency, interest rate and index ETFs trades.

Each week, you’ll receive a Recap Report that tracks a “model portfolio” comprising all the previous recommendations. That hypothetical portfolio was launch with $100,000 and each trade is in increments of $1000. The recap also includes a market overview and outlook for the next week and a detailed of the Portfolio as the previous Friday’s close.

What you do with your portfolio is your business but, at your election, you can mimic any of my trades through those of your own. However, you’ll have to do your own research, make your own decisions as to whether to buy or sell and in what quantities. It’s your money and you decide what to do with it.

I’m an experienced, seasoned trend trader but not a professional so sharing with you the trades I make in my own account, both buys and sells, is personally risky. Some trades could be quick winners while others could be held for the long-term. Every now and then, a few may actually turn out to be real stinkers and wound up sold at a loss. For confidentiality reasons, however, I can’t tell you how many shares are in each of my trades or what percentage each trade represents of the total portfolio but they are the stocks I trade.

One successful trade based on the information I share with you will probably more than cover the cost of a subscription. Don’t delay.

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