July 8th, 2010

Moon’s Batting Average up to 72%

Now that we’re getting close to the New Moon and with toady’s close at 1070, perhaps we should check in on the Lunar Phase Scorecard. I’ve got to say that, with one day remaining in this phase, it’s going to close in trying to hold on to the record. All it’s going to take is a close above 1076.76, less than one percentage point, or 0.6% exactly, for the record to remain intact:

As of last Friday, I had little confidence that the market would stage this strong a move up, close enough for the Index to possibly show an increase during this phase. But, amazingly, it has.

As I see it, nothing is really that different. We’re essentially back to where we were at the end of June. So don’t listen to all the talk about “the bottom”, the “recovery beginning”, “optimistic earnings season” and an uptick in the 2-year Treasury yields. It’s what comes after that I’m focusing on.

I used this run up as an opportunity to lighten up further and to add to some market index shorts. Sorry, all, but I’m hoping for no more than a 0.5% increase tomorrow and then, with some disappointing earnings reports, for significant declines over the remainder of the summer. I’m playing it like there’s some more left on the downside. That’s what the MTI still says and it could be wrong but I’m trying to remain discipline so that’s how I’m playing it.

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  • Anonymous

    GURU,,Can you advise if declines in the months of Nov and Dec have ever wiped out an entire yrs gains before ??The odds etc,,Thanks for any info..

  • Joe

    Interesting question …. wonder where it came from. Anyway, the answer is that since 1940 (70 full years):

    Nov-Dec was down 19 times (27.1%) Jan-Oct was down 21 times (30.0%) Year was down 20 times (28.6%)

    Only in 1947 did a Nov-Dec loss (0.84%) totally offset the Jan-Oct gain (0.85%) for a 0.0 change for the year. But you must have known the answer to that already.