August 17th, 2010
You may ask why I waste my time and yours keeping track of the Lunar Cycle stats when it’s probably nothing more than superstition. The only reason I can give is that with all the confusion out there about the direction the market most likely will exit this 11-month, excruciatingly long horizontal trading range (Is it a correction or a top? Only the future knows), why not latch on to something that depends not on opinion, experience or intuition. Why not hand off the question for an answer from an objective, impersonal, extraterrestrial arbiter – the Moon.
For those new to the theory [as I understand it since there can be various interpretations], the market is supposed to increase when it is waning (i.e., getting smaller) from Full to New. The market is supposed to retreat when the moon is waxing (i.e., getting larger) from New to Full. For those still be interested, here is an update of the Lunar Cycle stats. Last month was a split decision since the first half of the cycle failed (the market went up a nice 3.44% when it should have declined but the second half followed true to form with an slight increase):
That drops the batting average back down to 71.4% from 73.1% at the beginning of the cycle. With the difficulty the market seems to be having making any headway, then the next phase which ends with next Tuesday’s close (August 24), the batting average is likely to start moving back up.
Like any ballplayer knows, it gets harder and harder and takes more and more consistent hitting to make any headway in changing the stats. There’s just gets to be too much water under the dam to make much difference. [I see that in the gas mileage reading spit out by my car’s computer if I don’t periodically reset everything back to zero; the more I drive the longer it just continues reading 22.6 mpg.] Perhaps I’m going to have to reset these lunar stats and start tracking them on a rolling 12-month basis.
We only have to suffer through this difficult patch for another 5 trading days and the moon should again favor the Bull’s as a very difficult summer winds down to Labor Day. But then again, it will also the beginning of September, the month that’s supposed to be the worst of them all. We just can’t seem to catch a break with all this calendar seasonality and lunar stuff.