September 8th, 2010
Alright, Lunies, your anticipation is about to be satisfied. Here are the stats for the Lunar Cycle phase completed today (click on table to enlarge):
The moon keeps racking up a good score. Both halves of this month’s cycle turned out to work and by a wide margin. During the Waxing to Full phase, the moon cooperated by taking a whopping 6.17% beating; during the Waning to New phase which just ended, the market climbed 4.47%.
Look at the Index a year ago …. about the same as where it is today. If you all you had done for the last 14 months was buy SSO (the double-long S&P etf) during each Waning phases and SDS (the double-short S&P etf) during each of the Waxing phases since June 22, 2009 (the actual beginning of this experiment), you could have wracked up about a 100% profit ((35.11+12.39) x 2).
The batting average for the past 12 months (24 hits) is still 17 out of 24 correct, or 70.8%. Since the start of of the experiment, correct hits are 21 out of 30, or 70.0%.
Even though the average change each period is small (less than 2%), if you were able to buy options at good prices instead on these securities your profits might have been even better. Since there’s now a reliable track record, I decided to play the game and bought some short-term, in the money call options on SDS as a hedge against my portfolio for the coming 15 days through the next Waxing period.
Just my luck, the market will decide to not cooperate and decide instead to show me who’s boss by busting through the neckline of that inverted head-and-shoulder formation. I can accept that kind of kick in the pants any day.