November 7th, 2011
It’s been a while for those who hang on to the hope of finding a quick and easy way of unlocking the future of the market’s volatile movement so here is the latest update of my Lunar Tracking Table (click on image to enlarge):
When I told a friend about this strange phenomena of the moon’s phases being in close synchronicity (meaning: “an apparently meaningful coincidence in time of two or more similar or identical events that are causally unrelated”) with one another he replied “it’s too small a sample. You have see it happening year over year for many, many years.” Well, in the end we’re all dead. We have to make some judgment calls for the here and now.
I added another column to the analysis: rolling twelve month accuracy count. Since June 2010, the Waning Lunar Phases has correctly correlated with the market’s direction in 9-10 out twelve times. That’s understandable because the market over the period has trended higher. So, the accuracy during the 12-mos. rolling Waxing Phases has been correct half the times.
What has always intrigued me the most the cumulative changes during each of the two types of lunar phases. Since I started tracking these returns in 2009, if you had bought the SPY at the beginning of Waning Phase and sold at the end, your cumulative returns would have been 64.48%. I you had sold the SPY short at the beginning of each Waxing Phase and covered at the end, your cumulative returns would have been 27.99%. Combining the two would have nearly doubled your money in just over two years. Not bad for a theory that has yet to be statistically proven, wouldn’t you say?
By the way, for all those interested, the Waxing bearish phase will end on Thursday, so be patient. If synchronicity continues, we should have clear sailing to Thanksgiving.