January 25th, 2012
“….. at the risk of being labelled melodramatic …. I see “The Great Convergence” coming to a head and finally getting resolved with the 18-month struggle between bulls and bears with (I hope it’s not just wishful thinking but an actuality) the bulls finally gaining the upper hand and finally being able to break into new higher ground.”
After today’s close and after closing higher for 20 of the last 23 trading days, the market is now up 10.01% since December 19. Even more important is to note that today’s close was at 1326.06, almost exactly the level many chartists have touted as the breakout point that confirms an exit from this summer’s bear market and the continuation of last year’s bull market run off the lows.
It should also be noted that it’s almost exactly where the descending trendline connecting the 2007 and 2011 peaks is today. However, rather than thinking in terms of points (e.g., 1325 or 1326) we need to think of a zone. Every single trader doesn’t simultaneously decide to buy or sell which in turn causes a reversal at a single point. Furthermore, the Index is composed of 500 different stocks in every economic sector and each of these stocks will have their own underlying market dynamics. Market psychology does change when the market hits various levels but a change of psychology happens over time.
What the above chart indicates is a change in market psychology that’s been on-going since the bottom of the Financial Crisis Crash (see “Revisiting Housing and Banking With a New Ending” of a few days ago). The ascending trendline since the bottom (higher lows) and the descending trendline from the pre-crash peak (lower highs) results in this “Great Convergence”. The best momentum indicator (in my book) of moving averages across multiple time horizons are turning constructive adding to the conviction that a clear-cut signal to put, as they say in Wall Street, “risk back on”.
I believe there needs to be a 4-6% consolidation of this 10%, 23-day run and we’re going to look at it as a buying opportunity. But if the market continues to zoom ahead another 2-3% without that correction, then it’s “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”