February 17th, 2012
As January ended, I reiterated a hypothesis that the market was following the script written at the end of the 1970’s secular bear market by writing in That Old 1978-82 Analog Again,
“On the one hand, we might actually be escaping the Bear Market sooner than I had originally anticipated but, on the other hand, the analog may still be in play and we’re looking at a possible reversal for the remainder of 2012 in order to get back closer to the analog. I guess if I had to choose between swallowing my pride at having missed a “forecast” and accepting the upside break out or meeting the forecast but delaying the opportunity of seeing a higher market again ….. I’ll live with having missed a forecast.”
Compare the two secular bear markets, note the similarity and draw your own conclusions (click on image to enlarge):
Combining the two charts in sequence produces the now familiar view:
For the past 5-10 years we’ve been listening to the mantra “Buy and Hold is Dead”. Just do a search on the term and you see books, videos, TV clips, articles and blog posts …. I’ve probably even wrote it here several times over the past 6 years of this blog’s existence. Not to be just a contrarian but because I believe it might be true, I now offer a heresy. If we are witnessing the death of the current secular bear market might we not also be seeing the rebirth of buy and hold?
If the market over the next several quarter into early 2013 is laying the groundwork for a new bull market might it not be the right time to load up on stocks with great growth potential that you’ll want to hold for several years through several corrections? It begins not with the search for specific names but with a reorientation of mindset to accept the possibility that the market can and will exit the secular bear market by crossing above the previous highs and finally move into uncharted waters.
Let me know if I’m being a cock-eyed optimist or that it might actually turn out to be a plausible scenario.