February 9th, 2012
There’s no question about it, I’m definitely in the minority. First I wrote a piece entitled “KISS in Market Timing Too” in which I compared my approach to a complex algorithm developed by Ciovacco Capital Management called the Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI).
I followed that up with a piece yesterday entitled Market Momentum Turning, But Will It Accelerate? in which I see each of the four moving averages that I use in my Market Momentum Meter market timing tool having turned up and soon approaching a perfect bullish alignment (50-dma>100-dma>200-dma>300-dma).
Now I see something written by Ray Barros in Green Faucet entitled “S&P Nearing A Top?” in which he lists the following six indicators that have convinced him that the market is just one step like the failure of Greece debt negotiations away from collapsing into a bear market. Those six technical indicators are:
- Price – Structure: The 12-Month Swing and 13-week swing show we are in a sell zone. Figure 3 shows that since the Dec 2, 2011 that the up move has been on declining volume and range. In this context this is bearish.
- Time: Kress Cycles suggest we are in a window when a top is likely.
- Momentum: Figure 4 shows that this up move has been on declining momentum.
- Sentiment: The sentiment indicators I use suggest the S&P is skewed to the upside.
- Normalised Volume: We saw a sell setup with ‘below normal range’ and ‘normal volume’.
- PoMo: For me, this indicator generated a sell signal today.
He even includes charts depicting each of the above as supporting evidence like the one below:
However, I looked at those charts and what struck me was that: 1) they were so complicated and there was so much to digest that I couldn’t possibly make heads or tails of them and 2) I wondered what those signals might indicate if we hadn’t been in a secular bear market for the past 11 years.
The answer to his question of whether the market is approaching a top is definitely yes! I have little doubt that the market will approach the previous all-time high of 1576 sometime this year or next. The correct question to ask is will the market soon scale to new heights and cross into all-time new-high territory?” Since my Market Momentum Meter is turning bullish at these loft levels, I hope the answer is yes and I think the answer will be yes.