May 24th, 2012
There are almost many discussions in technical analysis circles as to whether moving averages are predictive and form resistance and support levels or whether they instead exclusively depict historical information (like, the average price of a stock over the past 200 trading days) and indicate trends (like, the average price over the prior 200 days continues to improve). I’m not going to take either side other than to say you can’t use one to the exclusion of the other. What I can say is that the 200- and 300-dma’s have performed extremely well as support over the past week (click on image to enlarge):
It could purely be happenstance or it could be that the close proximity of the two moving averages intensifies their support support capabilities or it might just be that a few more trading days will see the Index cross both moving averages indicating a dramatic deterioration in the market’s health and future prospects but for the time being it does break some temporary comfort and relief to those of us who are of the “technical persuasion”.
Where to from here? Your guess is as good as mine. But what I do say is that I’m relieved that I have a discipline that insulates me from all the speculation we’re bombarded with daily in the business media by neutralizing the day-to-day volatility and helps me focus on the longer term picture. My Market Momentum Meter distills the market’s trend over a number of time horizons and translates the analysis into a single number which, when compared to experience over nearly 50 years of market data, indicates what market tactic (all cash or fully invested) which will like generate the best likely outcome.
My Market Momentum Meter is at the borderline and may soon suggest a more conservative, risk-off approach but for the time being it still indicates that the market’s longer-term trend continues to be “provisionally, moderately bullish”.