Comments for Stock Chartist

Comment on Don’t Let the Train Leave Without You by guru

guru — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:42:07 +0000

Looking back with the advantage of hindsight on May 16 (to the original post of May 1) excluding banking was correct since the XLF (financials ETF) has declined -7.44% as compared with the market’s -5.35%.

Comment on Buffett and Precious Metals by guru

guru — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:36:33 +0000

Yes I do. My definition of Death Cross is when the 50-dma crosses under the 200-dma although Investopedia defines it as the less stringent 50-dma crossing below the 100-dma. The Death Cross is a critical component of my Market Momentum Meter. When I extrapolate the S&P Index in a straight-line descent at the recent rate of -0.168%/day since the high on March 26, a Death Cross would result around July 4-11 when the S&P Index was at approximately 1250. You may or may not recall but 1250 has been a critical pivot point area several times since the Secular Bear Market began in 1999, 13 years ago.

If the market does continue to decline, there will be an interim warning around June 10-12 when the Index hits 1290; that’s approximately where the 100-dma would be at that time. At the point, the Market Momentum Meter will no longer flash Bull/Green.

Comment on Buffett and Precious Metals by guest

guest — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:47:00 +0000

Guru, do you have concern
Gold Under a ‘Death Cross’?

Comment on Why the fixation on foreign exchange? by John Forman

John Forman — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:31:00 +0000

Joe – A couple of factual corrections. First, there is no margin interest in forex. Retail forex operates similarly to the futures market in that margin is nothing more than a surety deposit. It is not a loan used to buy securities the way it is in stocks. In fact, no currency ever actually trades hands, just agreements. Related to that, while there’s no dividend yield, there is potentially interest carry (think “carry trade”). Second, US traders need only put down 2% margin for the major currency pairs (exchange rates), and in other places it might be 1% or less.

Now, wrapping around to the whole “why?” question, you actually brought up the explanation yourself when mentioning huge margin. You’re absolutely correct that exchange rates tend to have less volatility than indices and individual stocks (see Looking at Volatility Across Markets). Once you start applying leverage, though, you have the opportunity to effectively match volatility, and thereby risk and reward opportunities between forex and other markets.

Comment on Don’t Let the Train Leave Without You by Guest

Guest — Tue, 08 May 2012 17:35:00 +0000

no banking?

Comment on HALO: What’s the response? by Illpass

Illpass — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 19:40:00 +0000

Take the loss man. It’s unfortunate it happened but there is no reason to compund the error by holding a broken stock. Admiting a mistake is the hardest part and you should celebrate this ability when you do it rather than feel like you failed in any way.

Comment on Just 10% to previous all-time high by guest

guest — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 14:39:00 +0000

if the economy is ok why kol, xme,slx are all time low??

Comment on Stock Picking Now Feels Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel – Chapter 2 by Your Questions About Stock Market Today Live Stock - Day Trading For Dummies

Your Questions About Stock Market Today Live Stock - Day Trading For Dummies — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 00:40:50 +0000

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Comment on Golden Crosses are Necessary but Insufficient by hotel management essay

hotel management essay — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 06:35:00 +0000

This is pretty interesting information that investors should learn.

Comment on 1912 = 2012; so many things change yet stay the same by Mo

Mo — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 23:30:00 +0000

BTW, you have been ultimately RIGHT about the direction of this market, and you’ve been right for quite a while on it. I might not be long-run too optimistic, but that has nothing to do with the stock market timing. You are doing a great job!