Category Archives: Discipline

February 17th, 2012

The Gestation and Rebirth of “Buy and Hold”

As January ended, I reiterated a hypothesis that the market was following the script written at the end of the 1970′s secular bear market by writing in That Old 1978-82 Analog Again,

“On the one hand, we might actually be escaping the Bear Market sooner than I had originally anticipated but, on the other hand, the analog may still be in play and we’re looking at a possible reversal for the remainder of 2012 in order to get back closer to the analog.  I guess if I had to choose between swallowing my pride at having missed a “forecast” and accepting the upside break out or meeting the forecast but delaying the opportunity of seeing a higher market again ….. I’ll live with having missed a forecast.”

Compare the two secular bear markets, note the similarity and draw your own conclusions (click on image to enlarge):

  • 1969-1980
  • 1999-2012

Combining the two charts in sequence produces the now familiar view:

For the past 5-10 years we’ve been listening to the mantra “Buy and Hold is Dead”.  Just do a search on the term and you see books, videos, TV clips, articles and blog posts …. I’ve probably even wrote it here several times over the past 6 years of this blog’s existence.  Not to be just a contrarian but because I believe it might be true, I now offer a heresy.  If we are witnessing the death of the current secular bear market might we not also be seeing the rebirth of buy and hold?

If the market over the next several quarter into early 2013 is laying the groundwork for a new bull market might it not be the right time to load up on stocks with great growth potential that you’ll want to hold for several years through several corrections?  It begins not with the search for specific names but with a reorientation of mindset to accept the possibility that the market can and will exit the secular bear market by crossing above the previous highs and finally move into uncharted waters.

Let me know if I’m being a cock-eyed optimist or that it might actually turn out to be a plausible scenario.

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February 14th, 2012

Is the Market Overvalued and Overbought?

I was struck by a post on Slope of Hope entitled “An Ongoing Balloon Ride” the major premise of which was that the the market has risen too far and diverged too far from its 400-dma such that there’s no questions “if this debt-filled balloon will disintegrate, but when“.  The writer’s premise is that the several times in the past when the Index has diverged as far as it has from its 400-dma have all been followed by a drop or correction.

I have my own database and decided to do my own research and gather my own facts to see whether I could replicate those results and come to the same conclusions.  My database goes back to 1963 and the moving average I rely on is the 300- rather than the 400-dma (but what difference does a hundred days make between friends).  The Slope writer visually picked the areas when the index diverged significantly from the moving average and eyeballed the subsequent change.  What I discovered was:

The S&P 500 Index is currently 6.38% above the 300-dma.  In the 12,089 trading days between March 12, 1963 and March 11, 2011, a spread between the index and the 300-dma of 5.00-7.99% occurred on one out of every 6 days, or 16.89% of the time.  One could almost say that this spread is “typical”, not large or overbought or stratospheric.  Actually,  it’s fairly typical.

One can look at both tails of the distribution as indications of how extreme the spread defining overbought or oversold situations, times when one needs to sell or has a true opportunity to buy.  In 2008 and 2009, at the depths of the Financial Crisis Crash, the market was over 35% below the 300-dma …. we should have all bought then but few had the nerve.  In August, 1987, the market was 24% above the 300-dma; a few months later, the market suffered it’s largest single daily decline in the October Crash …. we should have sold.

The market was more than 20% above the 300-dma also in 1983 as the market rocketed in celebration of its exit from the secular bear market of the 1970′s.  Rather than crashing, the market went into a horizontal consolidation lasting 15 months (just like the past 15 months?  I’ll leave that determination for you to make.)

So is the market now overbought?  Not if you use the 300-dma as a benchmark.  Did the Slope of Hope contributor select a seldom used 400-dma benchmark to prove his point?  It’s possible.  Where would the market have to be for it be overextended or overbought by these measures?  Somewhere around 1500-1550 …. interestingly, exactly the level of the market’s all-time high as measured by the S&P 500.

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February 9th, 2012

Will the Market Soon Cross into All-time New-High Territory?

There’s no question about it, I’m definitely in the minority.  First I wrote a piece entitled “KISS in Market Timing Too” in which I compared my approach to a complex algorithm developed by Ciovacco Capital Management called the Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI).

I followed that up with a piece yesterday entitled Market Momentum Turning, But Will It Accelerate? in which I see each of the four moving averages that I use in my Market Momentum Meter market timing tool having turned up and soon approaching a perfect bullish alignment (50-dma>100-dma>200-dma>300-dma).

Now I see something written by Ray Barros in Green Faucet entitled “S&P Nearing A Top?” in which he lists the following six indicators that have convinced him that the market is just one step like the failure of Greece debt negotiations away from collapsing into a bear market. Those six technical indicators are:

  • Price – Structure: The 12-Month Swing and 13-week swing show we are in a sell zone. Figure 3 shows that since the Dec 2, 2011 that the up move has been on declining volume and range. In this context this is bearish.
  • Time: Kress Cycles suggest we are in a window when a top is likely.
  • Momentum: Figure 4 shows that this up move has been on declining momentum.
  • Sentiment: The sentiment indicators I use suggest the S&P is skewed to the upside.
  • Normalised Volume: We saw a sell setup with ‘below normal range’ and ‘normal volume’.
  • PoMo: For me, this indicator generated a sell signal today.

He even includes charts depicting each of the above as supporting evidence like the one below:

However, I looked at those charts and what struck me was that: 1) they were so complicated and there was so much to digest that I couldn’t possibly make heads or tails of them and 2) I wondered what those signals might indicate if we hadn’t been in a secular bear market for the past 11 years.

The answer to his question of whether the market is approaching a top is definitely yes!  I have little doubt that the market will approach the previous all-time high of 1576 sometime this year or next.  The correct question to ask is will the market soon scale to new heights and cross into all-time new-high territory?”  Since my Market Momentum Meter is turning bullish at these loft levels, I hope the answer is yes and I think the answer will be yes.

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February 8th, 2012

Market Momentum Turning, But Will It Accelerate?

Many decry the lack of volume, conviction on the part of most individual investors, the lack of excitement about a market that just doesn’t seem to want to turn lower but instead inexorably continues to move higher.  Beneath the surface and behind the scenes, however, something is happening.  Many aren’t aware of it because of their focus always on today’s “Breaking News”, earnings reports or press releases.  What most don’t see is the change that’s taking place in the form of a slow turnaround in the trend of market momentum as measured by the moving averages.

In a piece entitled “Sweet Dreams” way back on October 14, 2010, I wrote:

…… have you taken a look recently at how the four moving averages (50- ,100- ,200- and 300-day) are converging as they were all trying to squeeze through the neck of a bottle? (click on image to enlarge)

First, it’s important to note that sometime next week, the dreaded “Death Cross” of the 50-dma crossing under the 200-dma that we were so fearful of at the beginning of July will be reversed and, by definition, will become the “Golden Cross”.

Also note that the four moving averages are transforming themselves into a bullish alignment so long as the Index itself remains above them all for the next month or so. That’s pretty monumental because it is a solid confirmation that a bull market is in place.

A few days before I’d written this piece, Europe’s Finance Ministers approved a rescue package worth €750 billion aimed at ensuring financial stability across Europe by creating the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF); six months later (May 2011), our stock market was 16% higher.

But the situation in Europe appeared to continue deteriorating. It became evident then that due to its severe economic crisis, Greece’s tax revenues were lower than expected making it even harder for it to meet its fiscal goals. Following the findings of a bilateral EU-IMF audit in June, further austerity measures were called for while Standard and Poor’s downgraded Greece’s sovereign debt rating to CCC, the lowest in the world.  Simultaneously, our stock market seemed to hit a wall; it cratered in August 2011.

The market now seems to be again trying to squeeze through the neck of that same bottle.  Last week, the Black Cross again turned back to Gold and  all four moving averages finally turned up this week.  Within a month or six weeks, the four moving averages will right themselves and we’ll see them in a perfect bullish alignment again.  Note the similarity between the 2010 above and what it looks like today:

I wrote to my members at the end of January that

“Going back 50 years, there haven’t been many periods when this convergence [of moving averages] has existed outside of market turns and that’s why I believe the market will soon begin trending higher. Obviously my anticipation isn’t based on an astute distillation and analysis of domestic or international economic and financial data. This prognosis is based on my read of the history of market psychology and behavior.”

The convergence continues to unfold.  Psychology is changing to match the more positive economic news.  We have begun adding to our positions with focus on select Industry Groups.  If there won’t be another surprise to hit us from left field (not intended as a reference to the elections this November) then we should continue putting cash to work as momentum begins really accelerating.

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February 3rd, 2012

Launching The Next Tech Bull Market

The big news today is that the Tech sector, as represented by the Nasdaq Composite Index, crossed into territory it hasn’t seen for more than 11 years (chart below is as of noon; actual close was 2905.66).  What this means is that the average Tech stock has surpassed the previous high set before the market’s collapse in the Financial Crisis Crash of 2007-09; new highs are breaking out in many tech stocks.

With the market measured in terms of my preferred benchmark, the S&P 500 Index) having risen by more than 22% since the October low, it’s probably a great time to ask the following two questions:

  1. What does “market timing” mean (or more correctly, what do I mean when I use the term “market timing?”) and
  2. With the market having gone up so far, it isn’t the time to jump in but rather the time to take profits and exit?

I’m not sure there are any “correct” answers to these questions …. and don’t let anyone who gives you an answer tell you that it is the correct one ….. there are only opinions.  So what I’m about to offer is my opinion and the discipline I intend to follow as hopefully the market enters into its next bullish phase.

To me, “market timing” means catching the beginning of a big wave and staying on until the end.  The most fun (read “fastest, easiest gains”) is in the earliest part of the ride; the hardest, roughest part is towards the end.  Earnings are multiples higher than they were in 2000 so, with the average tech stock now reaching heights it hasn’t seen in over a decade, I’d say this is the beginning of that ride.

That’s not to say that this ride won’t hit some bumps along the way.  There probably will be a retracement back to that resistance trendline at the 2007 high sometime over the next year in the form of a “buyers’ remorse correction” as many will second guess the advance in the light of some bad news (we can’t predict what that bad news might be but the “Talking Heads” in the business news media will create a story and claim that it’s the cause).  But that, too, will pass and the market of tech stocks will continue advancing.

Within the realm of possibility is seeing the Nasdaq Composite nearly double over the next 3-4 years and test its all-time high of 5132.32 made in March 2000.  It will take determination and iron nerves but it could also be extremely rewarding if you pick and stick with the right tech stocks and, if you make a mistake, quickly cut your losses.

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February 1st, 2012

KISS in Market Timing Too

KISS is an acronym for the design principle articulated by Kelly Johnson, Keep it simple, Stupid!  Variations include “keep it short and simple”, “keep it simple sir”, “keep it simple or be stupid”, “keep it simple and straightforward” or “keep it simple and sincere.”  The KISS principle states that most systems work best if they are kept simple rather than made complex, therefore simplicity should be a key goal in design and unnecessary complexity should be avoided.

Other forms of this maxim are “everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler” (Albert Einstein), and “”Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication” (Leonardo da Vinci).  The principle is true whether applied to the design of an airplane, conceiving the theory of relativity or developing a market timing tool.

The following statement was made in a post today entitled “Golden Crosses Can Lead To Golden Losses“:

“While both CCM [that's Ciovacco Capital Management] market models have jumped back into bull market territory, the Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) is approaching levels that are typically associated with market corrections.”

Stick a statement like that in front of me and I had to find out more about the BMSI to see how it compares with my MMM (Market Momentum Meter) which members know that it is serves as the barometer of my market timing approach and is previewed here.

About the only similarity between my MMM and the BMSI is that both are depicted on a scale that runs from Red to Green.  While my is a simple 5 traffic light approach, the BMSI looks like this:

But the similarity ends there.  Where the MMM uses 4 moving averages and the underlying S&P 500 Index, the BMSI is constructed with 30 different indexes as follows:

Complexity doesn’t mean precision and precision doesn’t mean accuracy.  It sort of reminds me of Cramer inferring in his “are you diversified?” segment that investors are safe and can generate high returns over the long run by merely diversifying their portfolio.  Aggregating a large and diverse number of indicators doesn’t necessarily give a better market timing signal than do a combination of four moving averages.

I’ve back-tested the MMM back to 1963 and am convinced that it performs well.  It got me out of the market in 2007, signaled reentry back into the market in 2009 and kept me safe through the fears brought on by last summer and winter’s worst European sovereign debt and US debt downgrades and budget debates.  It’s just issued a new signal indicating ….. sorry, that’s for members only.

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January 25th, 2012

“The Great Convergence”

In last week’s Recap Report recently sent to subscribers, I wrote and included the following chart:

“….. at the risk of being labelled melodramatic …. I see “The Great Convergence” coming to a head and finally getting resolved with the 18-month struggle between bulls and bears with (I hope it’s not just wishful thinking but an actuality) the bulls finally gaining the upper hand and finally being able to break into new higher ground.”

After today’s close and after closing higher for 20 of the last 23 trading days, the market is now up 10.01% since December 19.  Even more important is to note that today’s close was at 1326.06, almost exactly the level many chartists have touted as the breakout point that confirms an exit from this summer’s bear market and the continuation of last year’s bull market run off the lows.

It should also be noted that it’s almost exactly where the descending trendline connecting the 2007 and 2011 peaks is today.  However, rather than thinking in terms of points (e.g., 1325 or 1326) we need to think of a zone.  Every single trader doesn’t simultaneously decide to buy or sell which in turn causes a reversal at a single point.  Furthermore, the Index is composed of 500 different stocks in every economic sector and each of these stocks will have their own underlying market dynamics.  Market psychology does change when the market hits various levels but a change of psychology happens over time.

What the above chart indicates is a change in market psychology that’s been on-going since the bottom of the Financial Crisis Crash (see “Revisiting Housing and Banking With a New Ending” of a few days ago).  The ascending trendline since the bottom (higher lows) and the descending trendline from the pre-crash peak (lower highs) results in this “Great Convergence”.  The best momentum indicator (in my book) of moving averages across multiple time horizons are turning constructive adding to the conviction that a clear-cut signal to put, as they say in Wall Street, “risk back on”.

I believe there needs to be a 4-6% consolidation of this 10%, 23-day run and we’re going to look at it as a buying opportunity.  But if the market continues to zoom ahead another 2-3% without that correction, then it’s “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”

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January 19th, 2012

Revisiting Housing and Banking With a New Ending

There was much conversation today about how the housing and banking industry was leading the market higher ….. which reminded me of a post I made close to a year ago on May 11, 2011 entitled “Homebuilders and Financials: The Economy’s and Market’s Missing Wheel“.  The S&P 500 closed at 1342.08 that day, 2.06% above today’s close of 1314.50.  I concluded that piece by saying

“If you believe that these two sectors will be able to successfully cross their resistance hurdles and begin advancing to levels last seen in 2008 then you should be “all-in” believing the market will continue heading towards the all-time high. If not, stay on the sidelines because rather than riding a car to the top it would be like riding a three-wheeler powered by the rest of the economy including: healthcare, retail, tech & internet, commodities, industrials and consumer non-durables.”

Because of the new more constructive view of housing and banking with the hopes of continued advances for stocks in those groups, I repeat that blog, including those charts, below:

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Two Industry Groups stand in the way of further market advances: financials and homebuilders.

Home building industry spokespeople go on CNBC regularly each time of the housing statistics are announced, like monthly sales, financing and refinancing, starts, or permits issued. And the spokespeople each time differentiate between the sales of new homes and resales, especially those that are in foreclosure or underwater; they also attempt to differentiate between national statistics which include negative information from extremely skewed markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Florida and the rest of the national housing market.

Discussed less frequently are conditions and prospects for banking, insurance, asset managers and the rest of the financial industry group. Since the bottom in 2009, I have believed the sector was a key to launching a true bull market:

  • On 3/20/09 in Financial Stocks are Laggards I wrote: “It’s often said that financial stocks are the Industry Group that leads the market out of the average Bear Market. In this case, however, the financials not only lead us into the Bear Market but they were the principal cause.
  • On 5/18/09 in XLF (Financial Sector ETF): What Now? I wrote: “XLF seems to be making what looks like the beginning of an inverse head-and-shoulder, a stock pattern that looks similar to the S&P 500 Index pattern….There’s only a one-in-four chance that XLF will be able to cross the resistance at the 13.00 neckline allowing it to move up to 17.00. It’s almost certain that 12-18 months from now XLF will be double what it is today [closed at 12.29 on that day], we just can’t say when.
  • On 6/7/2009 in XLF (Financial Sector ETF) = Market Health I wrote: “…the key to solidifying the market’s turn, to a true change in momentum from bear to bull is financial stocks starting to move up…..The financial sector is tied up with economic health, exchange value of the $US, interest rates and the health of the financial system itself. I’ll rest easier when I see the XLF successfully and with conviction cross above it’s neckline. “
  • On 9/16/10 in Housing and Finance: Two Superimposed Crises and Bear MarketsI wrote: “[The] graph clearly depicts what I see as two coincidental and superimposed Crises the country has faced. We often see them merged into one continuous stream of bad news but, in reality, there was a Financial Crisis (impacting business) that was preceded by Housing Bubble and Bust (impacting consumers).” and inserted the following graph, now updated to last night’s close (click on image to enlarge):

A year later, while the rest of the economy has regained its footing enabling the market to push higher (up nearly 20% since then), those two industry groups are still stuck below significant resistance and unable to breakthrough and push significantly higher:

  • Homebuilders
  • Financials

If you believe that these two sectors will be able to successfully cross their resistance hurdles and begin advancing to levels last seen in 2008 then you should be “all-in” believing the market will continue heading towards the all-time high. If not, stay on the sidelines because rather than riding a car to the top it would be like riding a three-wheeler powered by the rest of the economy including: healthcare, retail, tech & internet, commodities, industrials and consumer non-durables.

===============================================================

If those groups start advancing this time, the rest of the market may not be much far behind.

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January 9th, 2012

Golden Crosses are Necessary but Insufficient

An event occurred last week that was pretty much under most investors’ radar screen; it was a Golden Cross in the DJ-30 Index.  If you don’t know what Golden and Black Crosses are, you should take a look at this excellent description from Bloomberg:


The moving averages of the S&P 500 Index haven’t yet formed that Gold Cross and won’t for another 15-20 trading days based on the recent rate at which the 50-dma is ascending.

Having said that, a Golden Cross is a necessary but insufficient market timing indicator.  As I wrote on November 23, 2010 in Listen to One Opinion or the Sound of the Thundering Herd, when some saw the signs that the market was approaching a reversal (John Murphy of StockCharts.com wrote “A decisive close below the 20-day line would signal a deeper correction that could take it down to its 50-day average, recently at 1,164.”):

“…the balance of technical evidence is now weighing more on the side of a breakout on the upside from the 12-month trading range than there is of a new bear market.

I’ve established a new near-term target of 1320 sometime before the beginning of the “sell-in-May” escape. The projection is based on what I perceive to be continually strengthening upside momentum as measured by my moving average-based Market Momentum Meter. While Murphy is looking at 20- and 50-day moving averages, I’m focusing on the fact that the 100-dma is a day or so away from crossing back above the 200-dma.

It may sound insignificant but when that fact is combined with the facts that 1) the 50-dma long ago crossed above the 200-dma (the Golden Cross) and above the 100-dma, 2) each of the three are above the 300-dma, 3) all four moving averages are trending up and, finally, 4) the index itself remains above them all then, historically, this tends to be very bullish. Especially since the market is at the early stage of that alignment.”

Five months later, on April 28, the market was 15.5% higher and closed at 1363, not far from my target set the previous November.

As my subscribers know, the Market Momentum Meter is at an extremely critical juncture in an excruciatingly narrow range just 0.11% away from issuing a Red/Bear and 1.40% away from issuing a Green/Bull signal.

This past October, in A Bull Market Signal? I discussed the Golden Cross and wrote

”

The problem with the indicator is that it over-prescribes an “all-cash” positions, periods when investors who follow the rule are out of the market when they should actually have been fully invested.

The problem can be remedied by combining the 200-dma rule with another common indicator and moving into an all-cash position only when both selling rules simultaneously proscribe an all-cash, risk-off posture. Only when the signal of one of the rules confirms the other should you actually assume the worst.”

Don’t be miss lead anymore by the media, miss read the market yourself and miss out on the next momentum-based trading opportunity.  Learn more by clicking here or the subscribe button below.

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November 10th, 2011

Caught in a Whirlpool

At times, the market these days makes you feel as you might when you’re caught in a whirlpool while kayaking down a raging river. You know the current’s general direction but all you sense at that moment is that you’re unable to extricate yourself from being whipped around in circles.

While “whirlpool” might describe how we investors feel, a better description of the market might be “unprecedented”. Frequent readers here know that my market timing discipline rests on the alignment of the S&P 500 Index and its 4 moving averages (50-, 100-, 200- and 300-dma). The alignment that indicates clearly that the market is in a bull trend is when the Index is above each of the moving averages and those averages trail the Index with them stacked from shortest to longest. Since 1963, that alignment has existed 34.5% of the trading days. As you might expect, the alignment that typifies a bear market is the mirror image with the Index below the four moving averages which are stacked from longest to shortest (300-, 200, 100- and 50-dma). That alignment has existed 9.2% of the days since 1963.

There are 120 possible combinations of the Index and its four moving averages in addition to the above two. Each combination has in the past nearly 50 years has been associated to so degree with a bullish or bearish market trend. Actually, 25 of the combinations have never existed because they would have required nearly impossibly extreme moves in either one of the moving averages or the Index itself. As of two weeks ago, one of those impossible moves actually did occur(click on image to enlarge).

For the first time in history (at least according to my records going back to 1963), the Index crossed above the four moving averages which were nearly in perfect bear market alignment. The crossing each time was so rare that it couldn’t be sustained for a day or two.

The problem is that the market jumped so far ahead of the prevailing consensus of market participants as reflected in the trend of its moving averages. There only one of three ways for the market to correct this imbalance:

  • Continue advancing far ahead of the moving averages and hope that the averages eventually catch up from this unprecedented situation
  • Stay generally at the current level until the moving averages catch up and return to a more common alignment
  • Decline to more quickly bring the alignment into balance and then turn up again in sync with the moving averages in a more typical reversal.

There’s are two out of 3 chance that the market can’t advance much further without the moving averages turning and heading higher. As my subscribers know, I remain skeptical and mostly on the sidelines.